Music · resolved market

Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf09a2e7373d8da24db88984800640372bd32f02710708e8c9771b1c3188a85fb

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $175,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,317 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	65	1.5%1 W · 64 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	9,633$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.8	147	8.2%12 W · 135 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	1c	6,664$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+70.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460f…0a05backed Yes	1c	6,300$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	4,585$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.92	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+132.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	1c	4,100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.26	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	3,374$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	+345.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	3,221$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.21	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+231.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes	1c	2,961$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eec…c999backed Yes	2c	2,640$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.83	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes	2c	2,090$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	151	19.2%29 W · 122 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes	1c	1,807$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+272%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	1c	1,784$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-77%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ea…8c6cbacked Yes	1c	1,674$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…aa10backed Yes	1c	1,589$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes	2c	1,559$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+227%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	2c	1,239$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.31	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9bdcbacked Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb5…e36ebacked Yes	1c	1,163$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+88.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes	2c	1,156$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51de…dcabbacked Yes	4c	1,139$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x128d…a17bbacked Yes	1c	1,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,083$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	462	9.7%45 W · 417 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade3…3b44backed Yes	2c	1,019$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb90…9cb0backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e4…93ecbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c6…de64backed Yes	3c	978.64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+117.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa164…ae36backed Yes	1c	950$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	844.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6486…0783backed Yes	2c	658.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe07…f189backed Yes	2c	562.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes	2c	560$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	2c	534.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8982…2871backed Yes	2c	506.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f1…fe43backed Yes	3c	349.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event