TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c15,116$46 inLost-$45.511478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b83…0961backed Yes1c10,830$54 inLost-$54.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$205111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c7,057$48 inLost-$47.78122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b34…86aebacked Yes2c6,295$95 inLost-$94.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470e…76e6backed Yes1c6,264$50 inLost-$50.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519a…30a3backed Yes1c4,934$44 inLost-$43.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c8…678ebacked Yes1c3,917$49 inLost-$48.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1,797.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c3,631$14 inLost-$14.3414315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes0c3,579$15 inLost-$15417.3%3 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-79.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,249$47 inLost-$47.41583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes1c2,963$25 inLost-$25.49407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+345.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf78…a054backed Yes2c2,310$40 inLost-$40475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.65per pick10cpaid+3,813.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes1c2,200$14 inLost-$13.8462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…f60bbacked Yes2c2,185$48 inLost-$48.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes1c2,112$14 inLost-$14.435030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fc…0b96backed Yes2c1,918$42 inLost-$42.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d5…a03dbacked Yes1c1,646$13 inLost-$13.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f0…8f93backed Yes1c1,643$20 inLost-$19.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7c…7cf8backed Yes1c1,638$15 inLost-$14.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…c49fbacked Yes1c1,479$20 inLost-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick26cpaid-92.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec14…a8b2backed Yes2c1,375$30 inLost-$30.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2159…de4dbacked Yes2c1,355$30 inLost-$29.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c1,196$26 inLost-$26.31811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes2c1,067$17 inLost-$16.54831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d8…931ebacked Yes1c950$11 inLost-$11.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1595…6476backed Yes1c877$11 inLost-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes1c874.92$13 inLost-$12.7916334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeefb…6b24backed Yes3c728$20 inLost-$20.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes2c703$11 inLost-$10.552334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b29…44b6backed Yes3c665$19 inLost-$18.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f2…e23abacked Yes3c615$17 inLost-$17.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.