Music · resolved market
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf08bed4cb9bd42164da1f68612649aada8f0f5262e2debc7fcb11f3e20de1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 13,411$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…9a69backed Yes | 8c | 4,473$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3f…c097backed Yes | 7c | 3,515$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…e705backed Yes | 8c | 2,685$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…3283backed Yes | 0c | 2,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…0d45backed Yes | 8c | 2,335$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…65f8backed Yes | 7c | 2,188$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…7b4cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,116$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…caeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,889$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…9f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,736$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b1…8c7ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,704$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d30…33c8backed Yes | 7c | 1,695$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…cad8backed Yes | 8c | 1,669$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…11f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…e829backed Yes | 8c | 1,628$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427b…978cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f9d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,502$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…fc66backed Yes | 7c | 1,475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…9533backed Yes | 8c | 1,382$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…04f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,380$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…77a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,376$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…038ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,363$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…9203backed Yes | 7c | 1,359$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…3fb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,277$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 1,249$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…99afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db4…29e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…1b42backed Yes | 8c | 1,078$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…bbd6backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…f7cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,018$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3897…ea4bbacked Yes | 4c | 989$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…32e3backed Yes | 7c | 919$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…21ffbacked Yes | 7c | 909$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab40…9326backed Yes | 8c | 866$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…e149backed Yes | 7c | 855$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…96d6backed Yes | 7c | 851$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…3b63backed Yes | 8c | 850$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…72bbbacked Yes | 5c | 849$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…57febacked Yes | 8c | 833$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…d0c6backed Yes | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…c02bbacked Yes | 7c | 794$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…b460backed Yes | 7c | 755$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…8c40backed Yes | 4c | 705$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…521fbacked Yes | 7c | 694$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…717abacked Yes | 7c | 620$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…eb28backed Yes | 7c | 615$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…76f1backed Yes | 7c | 608$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…ec07backed Yes | 7c | 593$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…217fbacked Yes | 7c | 582$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…755dbacked Yes | 7c | 528$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…b8f5backed Yes | 4c | 401$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40bd…6b9abacked Yes | 4c | 393.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 4c | 344.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 320.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Montenegro win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.