Music · resolved market
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33948dc5145f31a87c64f985fff3098d5c9df813a89820307c4b4ca92f51304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 19,417$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes | 0c | 10,562$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 10,310$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,699$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…0ef9backed Yes | 4c | 5,594$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…c49abacked Yes | 4c | 3,629$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…799cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,096$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c1babacked Yes | 4c | 3,080$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…dbf1backed Yes | 4c | 2,970$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…ae33backed Yes | 3c | 2,828$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…e738backed Yes | 4c | 2,817$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…c1ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,776$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…43c1backed Yes | 4c | 2,718$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…0772backed Yes | 3c | 2,635$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…f25ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,581$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5fbbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,410$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…49edbacked Yes | 5c | 1,980$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…e451backed Yes | 4c | 1,925$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…f7cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,919$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…3ab0backed Yes | 5c | 1,876$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…88e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,813$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…8a79backed Yes | 4c | 1,766$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…8e6dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,583$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…f563backed Yes | 3c | 1,484$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…4b28backed Yes | 3c | 1,433$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…1ae5backed Yes | 3c | 1,409$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…a8aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,358$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…8c40backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…c26cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,269$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…d27abacked Yes | 4c | 1,228$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9356…6857backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122d…4ee6backed Yes | 3c | 1,146$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…bba6backed Yes | 4c | 1,115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…58dcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…6fc1backed Yes | 5c | 1,069$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…1df7backed Yes | 3c | 1,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…7d48backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…d295backed Yes | 5c | 999$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c02backed Yes | 3c | 942$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…3fb4backed Yes | 4c | 935$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…13c3backed Yes | 4c | 923$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…3cbfbacked Yes | 3c | 910$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…81a5backed Yes | 3c | 876$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…2147backed Yes | 3c | 864$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…b915backed Yes | 5c | 845$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8185…e770backed Yes | 4c | 823$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db4…29e8backed Yes | 3c | 809$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b09…7af3backed Yes | 3c | 799$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…6a7cbacked Yes | 3c | 797$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…d02fbacked Yes | 3c | 783$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…76c3backed Yes | 3c | 744$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d0…3802backed Yes | 4c | 690$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…b8f5backed Yes | 4c | 685$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…12b6backed Yes | 3c | 680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…3137backed Yes | 4c | 677$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…e97dbacked Yes | 4c | 645$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…aa4ebacked Yes | 3c | 642$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2f…2e1ebacked Yes | 3c | 632$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…99afbacked Yes | 3c | 580$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 578.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…1955backed Yes | 4c | 572$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…0128backed Yes | 3c | 482$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 425.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…417dbacked Yes | 4c | 401.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…4288backed Yes | 3c | 393$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…c93dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Montenegro win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.