Music · resolved market

Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa638f07ead61bf4c1ba5c9268b54838ff96e28221743543cf7491dc865a76a31

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $163,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $107,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,537 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	9c	8,516$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.64	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	10c	8,333$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.41	143	15.4%22 W · 121 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+353%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	4c	4,323$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.67	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25c2…5b28backed Yes	7c	4,215$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.4	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	7c	3,601$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.66	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+231.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes	6c	3,225$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.02	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	6c	3,197$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.99	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe694…966fbacked Yes	2c	2,900$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	8cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	2,640$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.08	147	8.2%12 W · 135 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	4c	2,410$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.08	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+70.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	5c	2,387$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.07	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes	14c	2,111$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	58	19%11 W · 47 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes	5c	1,978$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…7f15backed Yes	3c	1,912$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	4c	1,897$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.21	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	+345.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d11…1d69backed Yes	2c	1,896$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…290fbacked Yes	2c	1,885$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb361…808ebacked Yes	14c	1,883$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.09	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+3.7wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+168%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	6c	1,857$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.26	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2297…7f71backed Yes	3c	1,834$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	7c	1,825$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.6	74	25.7%19 W · 55 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	10c	1,810$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.9	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes	7c	1,723$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.09	93	33.3%31 W · 62 L	+10.8wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+76%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	79c	1,575$1,238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.21	229	27.9%64 W · 165 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes	10c	1,412$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes	22c	1,387$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes	3c	1,330$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.12	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.8wins	+0.32per pick	57cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	5c	1,303$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked Yes	10c	1,214$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.64	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	7c	1,211$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	81	22.2%18 W · 63 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+75%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c8…4601backed Yes	9c	1,211$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,210$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.84	107	4.7%5 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f7…4d40backed Yes	2c	1,210$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	1,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	65	1.5%1 W · 64 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb3…13e6backed Yes	9c	993.21$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.07	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes	10c	984.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda75…0453backed Yes	8c	915.91$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	894.83$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.39	66	4.5%3 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes	10c	855.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.18	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4522…ef10backed Yes	13c	849.51$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	4c	837.42$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.21	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	828.56$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.08	462	9.7%45 W · 417 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes	5c	825.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	8c	813.09$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.95	69	5.8%4 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+148.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aec…7de7backed Yes	3c	803.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	10c	794$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+290.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes	2c	660.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad19…3724backed Yes	9c	649.44$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.62	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes	6c	638.68$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	128	35.9%46 W · 82 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f80…2804backed Yes	3c	603.44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	4c	599.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	151	19.2%29 W · 122 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	6c	548.53$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc78f…79c6backed Yes	8c	524.93$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	10cpaid	+78.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes	4c	506.63$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes	5c	504.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb90…4bc3backed Yes	4c	496.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	6c	479$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.72	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes	8c	478.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fa…5da5backed Yes	47c	455.51$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.59	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked Yes	9c	419.2$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+134.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	8c	400.75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	12c	367$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.14	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…63f3backed Yes	10c	355.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a1…3527backed Yes	12c	348.66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa60b…0edcbacked Yes	51c	326.07$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes	6c	310.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+3.7wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes	5c	310.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	9c	273.65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…a799backed Yes	11c	269.69$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.73	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d53…cfa5backed Yes	8c	262.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca06…f65bbacked Yes	8c	260$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a408backed Yes	8c	255.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac1…8b5bbacked Yes	8c	240$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes	10c	220.77$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes	6c	218.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+173.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes	7c	185.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d2…7ad6backed No	50c	170.84$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.42	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91c7…b70bbacked Yes	12c	169.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes	6c	157.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+323%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+230.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0862…8403backed Yes	10c	115.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fd…ba89backed Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	76c	80$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	87	37.9%33 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No	44c	64.15$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.93	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	69c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.84	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No	61c	30.73$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.13	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event