TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,653,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,709,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,653,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9337…a410backed Yes1c518,092$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.51277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+296.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c393,558$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.9714315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes1c304,999$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7103212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+255.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes1c204,857$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.7750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed Yes1c190,154$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.921855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes1c176,405$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.89214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d6d6backed Yes1c166,970$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes1c158,887$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.416334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e6a…fdc0backed Yes1c125,231$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.043013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid+21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c103,144$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.787425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf13…7b80backed Yes1c87,662$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c61,090$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.08651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c55,976$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c45,514$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4122927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9e…899ebacked Yes0c41,010$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eab…5ceabacked Yes1c39,573$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Yes1c39,363$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes1c36,857$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.999335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c35,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c0…9b01backed Yes1c33,663$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes1c33,445$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-38%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes1c32,269$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes1c28,608$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.865819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c27,640$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.731478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c26,824$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.228122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c25,708$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.88323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fe…65ddbacked Yes1c25,415$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes1c25,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick1cpaid+1,134.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdc…bf08backed Yes3c22,988$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.461250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes1c22,228$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.754012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9785…17afbacked Yes1c21,234$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+420.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes1c21,091$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134417.3%3 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-79.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccc5…9354backed Yes0c20,585$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-64.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b4…cc72backed Yes1c20,256$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes0c19,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c18,933$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes2c18,692$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.841010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dcf…4792backed Yes1c18,585$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes1c17,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x651a…b898backed Yes1c16,807$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes1c16,798$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.992718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f8…44fdbacked Yes1c16,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d5…281fbacked Yes1c15,665$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes1c15,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c14,677$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.03170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes2c14,629$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.86283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf356…211abacked Yes1c14,627$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9b…7af0backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick1cpaid+2,930.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c12,498$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa219…0bcfbacked Yes1c12,108$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c68…1821backed Yes1c12,007$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes1c11,548$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.61911.1%1 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick0cpaid+1,986.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes1c11,510$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.593625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes1c11,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick1cpaid+1,415.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+367%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes1c11,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c10,682$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.362412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc080…f9a0backed Yes1c10,498$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…d847backed Yes2c10,455$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c10,345$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.46673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Yes1c10,252$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc14a…9e30backed Yes1c10,120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c10,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+1,685.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50267.7%2 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ceb…4d75backed Yes1c9,605$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6de…19b5backed Yes0c9,073$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c8,923$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+451.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes1c8,512$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.07714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick1cpaid+1,487.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes1c8,346$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.04214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes1c8,328$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick2cpaid+1,654.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c8,044$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.63695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe5…b470backed Yes1c8,009$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c7,894$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.812810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+174.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes2c7,854$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.59333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd62…50e5backed Yes0c7,840$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+449%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes1c7,714$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes1c7,703$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.747416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bb…f258backed Yes1c7,566$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c6,961$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.361074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c6,831$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes1c6,667$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c6,554$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.38583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c6,397$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.37664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes1c6,224$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes1c6,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x649e…018ebacked Yes1c5,811$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x217e…133ebacked Yes0c5,775$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,772$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.576520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x407f…57e4backed Yes1c5,707$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…4a94backed Yes1c5,697$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed11…a171backed Yes1c5,600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e3…fb37backed Yes1c5,555$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes1c5,523$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5615…b101backed Yes1c5,400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767c…34cebacked Yes1c5,255$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes1c5,128$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713e…408fbacked Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.