AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff16b6bcd389f460c1faa80c1965660e064b2bc4843ec9a6239aa74b114bbbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 60c | 21,408$12,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,532.07 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 17c | 20,597$3,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,567.29 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 40c | 10,123$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,039.8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,800$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 33c | 6,215$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 6,196$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.06 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdb…d5fdbacked Yes | 77c | 4,568$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…99ecbacked Yes | 70c | 3,310$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,300$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,066$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.89 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 34c | 3,029$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 27cpaid | +226%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 48c | 2,789$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.15 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 24c | 1,809$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.77 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,585$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,284$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 1,174$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.1 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 77c | 1,101$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.82 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 1,080$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 66c | 899.95$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 9c | 818.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 29c | 696$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.25 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 22c | 691.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 26c | 662.36$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 78c | 628.32$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed Yes | 6c | 621.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 37c | 570.14$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.36 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 75c | 555.02$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.76 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 524.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.39 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…fde1backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…3733backed Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 29c | 498.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…1424backed No | 41c | 476.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 32c | 476.22$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 16c | 431.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 70c | 418.23$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 414.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…a5aebacked Yes | 7c | 404.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 33c | 399.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 61c | 379.88$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.04 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 47c | 313.91$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 76c | 299.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…fbeebacked Yes | 67c | 299.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 76c | 298.71$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 32c | 294.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…016bbacked Yes | 65c | 280$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…f1ffbacked Yes | 13c | 279.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 277$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 258.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 69c | 258.49$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…dc8dbacked Yes | 21c | 255.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 27c | 254.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…3d2cbacked Yes | 21c | 247.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6d…c60fbacked No | 39c | 245.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 13c | 238.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 5c | 219.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 18c | 206.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…00adbacked Yes | 27c | 186.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…bf67backed Yes | 13c | 185.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96de…ae4cbacked Yes | 39c | 180.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 165.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 164.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 47c | 149.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 142.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…582bbacked Yes | 46c | 141.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes | 62c | 139.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…186ebacked Yes | 15c | 135.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…0837backed Yes | 73c | 134.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked No | 43c | 125.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…a4b4backed No | 61c | 122.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…25a2backed Yes | 67c | 119.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…178dbacked Yes | 13c | 110.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…11c4backed Yes | 22c | 108.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…6cc8backed Yes | 74c | 106.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…da02backed Yes | 9c | 105.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked No | 43c | 103.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…f006backed No | 67c | 101.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…fae4backed Yes | 15c | 100.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…d320backed No | 28c | 100.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…5466backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…e658backed Yes | 61c | 95.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…69efbacked Yes | 74c | 95.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…5614backed Yes | 16c | 93.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 36c | 92.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 67c | 91.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 19c | 84.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 25c | 80.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 76.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed No | 17c | 75.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 66c | 73.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…d237backed Yes | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.