TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$169,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,916 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf93…2fd7backed No60c21,408$12,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,532.071770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+118.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes17c20,597$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.297020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes40c10,123$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.85554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c9,800$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes33c6,215$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes19c6,196$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.0621035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bdb…d5fdbacked Yes77c4,568$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7b…99ecbacked Yes70c3,310$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes26c3,300$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.113638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes45c3,066$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.8914339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed No34c3,029$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.221163.6%7 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick27cpaid+226%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes48c2,789$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.1525837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes24c1,809$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.7736945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes7c1,585$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0427536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes6c1,284$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8210933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed Yes19c1,200$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No33c1,174$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.17035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked No77c1,101$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.828150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c1,080$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5917824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked Yes66c899.95$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307f…c327backed Yes9c818.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.751010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No29c696$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.255510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6435…cbc8backed Yes22c691.43$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.211741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes26c662.36$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.16010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes78c628.32$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.28475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed Yes6c621.59$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked No37c570.14$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.364969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No75c555.02$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.767948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c524.77$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.395848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…fde1backed Yes59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8594…3733backed Yes73c499.99$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed No29c498.54$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.641533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d37…1424backed No41c476.4$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes32c476.22$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes16c431.58$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.196016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes70c418.23$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.87146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c414.16$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfe…a5aebacked Yes7c404.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes20c400$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7870%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes33c399.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.438933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes61c379.88$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0411346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No47c313.91$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.953557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes76c299.98$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes67c299.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes76c298.71$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.022737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No32c294.04$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.462334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa684…016bbacked Yes65c280$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdfb…f1ffbacked Yes13c279.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.111010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c277$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.474157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c258.99$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No69c258.49$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2911855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x108a…dc8dbacked Yes21c255.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3980%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked No27c254.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.531070%7 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+74.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x732e…3d2cbacked Yes21c247.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6d…c60fbacked No39c245.34$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes13c238.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes5c219.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes18c206.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.382934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes19c199.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.610723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c42…00adbacked Yes27c186.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc309…bf67backed Yes13c185.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96de…ae4cbacked Yes39c180.8$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No64c165.33$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3513738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes24c164.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7215047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes47c149.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No50c142.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1329430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7f…582bbacked Yes46c141.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.841758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes62c139.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.271553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d63…186ebacked Yes15c135.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14e…0837backed Yes73c134.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82cd…00aebacked No43c125.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.71475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+67.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa36…a4b4backed No61c122.07$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff87…25a2backed Yes67c119.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64a…178dbacked Yes13c110.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6129…11c4backed Yes22c108.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…6cc8backed Yes74c106.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3afa…da02backed Yes9c105.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebcf…086abacked No43c103.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51b…f006backed No67c101.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb405…fae4backed Yes15c100.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad3f…d320backed No28c100.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.06955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+152%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.18442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…5466backed Yes19c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c02…e658backed Yes61c95.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…69efbacked Yes74c95.1$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913a…5614backed Yes16c93.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No36c92.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.635855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No67c91.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-68%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7048…f896backed Yes19c84.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No25c80.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.974415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes34c76.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1119120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c58…0725backed No17c75.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.861050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+69.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f12…2640backed Yes66c73.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.643372.7%24 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8a…d237backed Yes69c71.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.