AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c23424305573f92b0d87984e0e22dc9c1c634bed50248b1c0036acfcd75ed4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 15c | 62,453$9,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,310.97 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 5c | 17,076$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.98 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 55c | 16,244$8,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,315.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 9,700$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 3c | 7,532$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 54c | 5,062$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.88 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…e658backed Yes | 39c | 4,790$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,935.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 10c | 3,939$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 36c | 3,913$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 27cpaid | +226%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 3,487$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.77 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,273$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 2,695$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.58 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 29c | 1,679$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.38 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,639$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 7c | 1,493$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…4d52backed Yes | 36c | 1,318$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 63c | 1,203$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.27 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 1,200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,198$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.24 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdb…d5fdbacked Yes | 79c | 1,025$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 22c | 847.97$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 742.03$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 21c | 616.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 23c | 600$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked No | 14c | 572.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 79c | 532.15$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 56c | 517.86$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 512.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed Yes | 11c | 498.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…3a33backed Yes | 78c | 495.04$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 490.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 428.43$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 68c | 420.13$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…2f5cbacked Yes | 66c | 363.76$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 33c | 342.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd05c…ea2cbacked Yes | 59c | 327.97$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 60c | 323.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 13c | 322.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…bd84backed Yes | 77c | 321.07$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 70c | 296.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 36c | 295.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 8c | 290.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed Yes | 68c | 286.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…9722backed Yes | 10c | 280.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 27c | 278.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…7ae7backed Yes | 80c | 269.54$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 22c | 243.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cf…1901backed No | 8c | 238.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 229.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed Yes | 77c | 229.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 225.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 39c | 210.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 17c | 208.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed Yes | 73c | 198.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…5dc0backed Yes | 7c | 191.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked Yes | 77c | 190.15$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 187.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…8376backed Yes | 30c | 184.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 26c | 180.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…caa9backed No | 16c | 180.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 43c | 178.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed Yes | 28c | 170.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 34c | 165.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…5022backed Yes | 60c | 161.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +327.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked No | 12c | 160.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 153.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…8496backed Yes | 27c | 151.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +272.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 8c | 147.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…76b9backed Yes | 79c | 146.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…0fcbbacked Yes | 49c | 145.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…f1ffbacked No | 10c | 144.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 22c | 134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…1a6bbacked No | 12c | 131.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Yes | 78c | 125.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…582bbacked Yes | 45c | 122.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 79c | 121.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…73b1backed Yes | 80c | 118.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 23c | 118.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 116$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 59c | 115.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 112.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…40f6backed Yes | 35c | 109.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 31c | 103.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…f006backed Yes | 61c | 101.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b3…c439backed Yes | 53c | 99.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 64c | 99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 94.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 12c | 92.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked No | 14c | 90.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.