TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ee4…6832

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
25
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+168.5%+$505.55
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$44.38
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+400%+$119.99
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+262.1%+$123.45
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.02
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$70.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.