AI · resolved market
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87b3c512f357be807ced8d402b31c20ce5d5e472d1cf48caa402fd5f7e71edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 44c | 5,148$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.08 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed No | 30c | 2,843$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.54 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 59c | 2,078$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.87 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd655…46b9backed No | 50c | 1,987$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes | 50c | 1,987$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e9…28babacked Yes | 50c | 1,987$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 24c | 1,600$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 48c | 1,348$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.36 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 38c | 897$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 803.53$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.61 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 55c | 456.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.85 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 45c | 412.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 58c | 321.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.05 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 298.81$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 45c | 263.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 34c | 228.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 70c | 192.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 59c | 180.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 70c | 171.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 54c | 149.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 127.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 77c | 125.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 11c | 116.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…1cafbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 80c | 97.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…72ccbacked No | 39c | 84.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 73.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…c7e9backed No | 34c | 71.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 34c | 71.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 59c | 67.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 49c | 62.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed No | 28c | 48.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 47.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked No | 45c | 44.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca8…e6ecbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…35aebacked Yes | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked No | 58c | 34.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe63b…f734backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 52c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 21.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?this page
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.