AI · resolved market
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d04b8c361197688102eaad1d1baa49cd25ea02565000baa2607c4d5988ff28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,272$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.17 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 26c | 1,328$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 18c | 806.4$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.95 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 79c | 775$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 21c | 710.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.18 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 70c | 600$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…785fbacked Yes | 22c | 487.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +363.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 47c | 396.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…31a3backed Yes | 80c | 250.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 5c | 212.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 12c | 206.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 201$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 28c | 119.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 79c | 102.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 30c | 97.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 67c | 79.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…5dc0backed Yes | 20c | 50.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 33c | 45.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 29c | 35.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 74c | 21.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 75c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?this page
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.