Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a8c3c53e6fa4ee4bb684fee96445825966d261dcd750622b6ce5fc1a8680fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 9,568$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.71 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 26c | 9,102$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed No | 80c | 4,639$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 16c | 3,097$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 2,856$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…6946backed Yes | 2c | 2,409$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,201$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.99 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 22c | 2,014$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,944$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,668$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 11c | 1,313$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 11c | 1,191$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 12c | 1,078$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 78c | 984$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 78c | 960$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 1c | 913.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 78c | 876$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 12c | 831.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 78c | 788$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 696.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 17c | 588.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 10c | 531.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 466.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 12c | 438$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 17c | 419.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 13c | 415$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 12c | 409$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 18c | 370.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 16c | 310.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 263.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 249$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 22c | 205.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 203.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 178$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…b422backed Yes | 7c | 161.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 152.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 17c | 140.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 117.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 24c | 103.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…9095backed Yes | 10c | 101.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…9b51backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 24c | 87.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 85.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 76c | 80.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 44c | 68.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 53.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…0f58backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 24c | 47.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…3ffcbacked No | 69c | 45.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d7…061cbacked Yes | 28c | 43.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 70c | 42.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 71c | 42.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 72c | 40.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 78c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.