Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b778f18fff7ecc7cfc0a1cdc389ee65f5ef98b2222030a8b132cfcdb6d4369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 58c | 12,800$7,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,354.61 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 42c | 6,017$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.62 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 54c | 2,216$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 59c | 1,722$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.02 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Yes | 74c | 1,607$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 1,091$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 52c | 1,078$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.93 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 6c | 995.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 31c | 994.34$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.78 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 26c | 968$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 74c | 915$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 25c | 867$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 75c | 867$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 62c | 748$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 32c | 601.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 41c | 565$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 41c | 557$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 55c | 530.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 39c | 494$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 61c | 494$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 392.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 38c | 375$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 38c | 373$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 34c | 346.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 73c | 338$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed No | 33c | 301.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 290.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 248.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 247.82$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 64c | 244.77$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 35c | 229.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed No | 44c | 227.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…6f96backed No | 32c | 192$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…7036backed No | 62c | 185$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 27c | 184$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 31c | 165.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 165.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 27c | 154$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 32c | 149.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 21c | 148$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 79c | 148$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 31c | 143.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 142.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 132.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 77c | 130.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 126.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 21c | 117.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 69c | 109.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 22c | 103.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…9b51backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 50c | 90.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed Yes | 67c | 87.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 34c | 80.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 69.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 20c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 51c | 58.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked No | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 62c | 56.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 42c | 52.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 47c | 50.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 71c | 47.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 27c | 40.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…714dbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 38c | 35.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 56c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 43c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…97c4backed No | 49c | 32.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 58c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 57c | 28.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…afb2backed Yes | 69c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…2991backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.