AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae66cdbf42fce89321fbb75e9f1fef9d7b4edb31ef322b577d0ac63e0f92679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b0b…3ff4backed Yes | 13c | 4,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…12eebacked Yes | 22c | 3,348$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 13c | 2,514$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 78c | 2,258$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.21 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 78c | 1,703$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…4bf4backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…9fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,339$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,033$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 63c | 811.96$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.37 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 799.98$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 778$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 38c | 772.09$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 12c | 769.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 557.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 21c | 534$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 80c | 510.36$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…00ebbacked Yes | 21c | 505.15$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…3e9ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 449.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 17c | 428.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…6710backed Yes | 29c | 411.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed Yes | 17c | 411.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…13f7backed Yes | 18c | 385.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…50d1backed No | 80c | 369.4$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 11c | 347.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 346.29$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 332.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…dffdbacked Yes | 31c | 307.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 306.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 22c | 297.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked Yes | 18c | 287.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 18c | 277.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 273.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 17c | 219.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 16c | 192.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 29c | 164.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 68c | 153.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…4c96backed Yes | 15c | 150.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c2…12e7backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…c68ebacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 146.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 140.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked No | 76c | 108.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a3…79b7backed Yes | 20c | 102.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…cfc0backed Yes | 40c | 93.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed No | 80c | 78.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…2351backed Yes | 28c | 66.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…86febacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…cf85backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…4b8bbacked No | 80c | 29.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 71c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…f038backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed Yes | 68c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 80c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?this page
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.