AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa4708641bc0f76874a0e93105fa809ac251f67dcdc1f8463f4d98ea2a98039a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 5c | 15,947$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 10c | 14,805$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc3…d601backed Yes | 0c | 12,304$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 72c | 10,865$7,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.37 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…4bf4backed Yes | 5c | 5,405$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…12eebacked Yes | 7c | 5,086$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 68c | 4,261$2,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 3c | 3,502$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 4c | 2,335$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 16c | 1,650$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 1,534$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.15 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 75c | 1,440$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 29c | 1,200$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 28c | 1,155$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3ff4backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked Yes | 74c | 955.56$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 20c | 795.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.88 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 49c | 699.76$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.51 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Yes | 21c | 525$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 57c | 497.75$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.6 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 16c | 489.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 12c | 468$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…daa9backed Yes | 5c | 375.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 9c | 306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 15c | 297.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.62 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 13c | 296.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.93 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 11c | 268.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.85 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed Yes | 77c | 258.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…c68ebacked No | 13c | 210.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 12c | 185.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.61 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 21c | 166.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 157.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…e691backed Yes | 31c | 115.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 14c | 114.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 80c | 104.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 103.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 98.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…5614backed No | 16c | 93.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 15c | 81.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 31c | 67.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 66.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 46c | 56.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 55.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Yes | 29c | 50.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 46c | 30.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…cfc0backed Yes | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…b8f1backed Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?this page
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.