TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48b7…f103backed No6c9,583$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.331533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…c4febacked No5c7,821$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No5c3,341$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.362227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c2,442$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.352037.4%15 W · 188 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No3c2,061$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9810850%54 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes54c1,828$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.689861.2%60 W · 38 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x252c…d5b4backed Yes73c1,648$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbb…2d3abacked No5c1,235$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,127$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.89358.6%3 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No4c875.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3918841.5%78 W · 110 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2598…60d8backed Yes73c758.63$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No44c739.04$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5175…1546backed No35c704.07$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes59c700.95$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1242862.4%267 W · 161 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed No15c530.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6425…4293backed No10c501.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e4…69aebacked No4c482.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee4…6832backed No4c459.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed No8c456.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x586b…646cbacked No7c443.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b4…7483backed No6c421.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f60…b0a4backed No6c404.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No7c396.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.52240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No43c393.09$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa070…c103backed No30c389.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.353455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No19c384.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.884712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked No5c382.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+172.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ee…3cf0backed No5c360.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No26c341.91$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5515233.6%51 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes78c312.42$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.951747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed Yes27c289$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.541931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes51c204.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.445851.7%30 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040d…1a5ebacked No8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.453650%18 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No7c196.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2516024.4%39 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked Yes69c196.13$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.85646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd42…878dbacked Yes61c191.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d1…5eaebacked Yes71c190.36$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No10c180.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No39c176.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.021855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6622…25d5backed No46c176.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4796…a707backed Yes61c164.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0051…a955backed No31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4004…c40bbacked Yes79c158.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked No33c151.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457847.4%37 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7212251.6%63 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fb…e547backed No32c141.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4135…2b3fbacked No28c140.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes52c128$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4412450.8%63 W · 61 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked No15c125.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8720…ea73backed Yes77c107.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.61560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cd…9aa5backed Yes50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0aa…3984backed Yes75c95.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5a…35aebacked No44c90.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes71c88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.091984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab78…2563backed Yes61c82.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…fc98backed No35c82.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb014…bd18backed Yes47c79.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56a…e0e7backed No44c76.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes71c73.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fc…a4f5backed Yes71c70.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a89…c937backed No37c66.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe823…dd90backed No36c63.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed No45c63.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.611442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c62.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.561250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b20…5e04backed Yes57c61.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-78.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…0fc8backed Yes50c58.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…a81ebacked No47c53.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb6…b122backed Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+76.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed No26c50.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.073259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f6b…78e3backed No38c49.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79de…2f63backed Yes53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e0…43b9backed Yes67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes65c43.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+168.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes67c40.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes51c37.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84b7…d7abbacked No32c36.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes39c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0412744.1%56 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed Yes71c35.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.285253.8%28 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No39c34.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked No44c27.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2519145%86 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f90…82aabacked No48c27.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No38c26.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes65c26.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.356157.4%35 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ead…bdccbacked No52c24.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f50…7077backed Yes57c22.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c64…cb26backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1b…bc10backed No56c18.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d56…046fbacked Yes63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.