Commodities · resolved market
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdb4d01b7797953c92c03e98cf7d36e62543b37972435e6b4a1c74f4200b108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $578,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $638,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $578,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 587 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 27,444$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 24,091$16,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,262.86 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 21c | 13,529$2,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 9,109$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.07 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed No | 46c | 8,693$3,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,704.69 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 7,340$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 16c | 6,692$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 20c | 6,620$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.35 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 16c | 5,529$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.52 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 3c | 5,408$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 26c | 4,780$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 48c | 4,681$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.64 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 72c | 4,610$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 41c | 4,511$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 69c | 4,340$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 28c | 3,926$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked Yes | 65c | 3,920$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 56c | 3,680$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.29 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 65c | 3,646$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.64 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 76c | 3,613$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 61c | 3,530$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 65c | 3,332$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.79 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…6f40backed No | 49c | 3,263$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 39c | 3,233$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 21c | 3,043$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.89 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 61c | 2,995$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.1 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 29c | 2,939$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,920$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 52c | 2,908$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.36 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 77c | 2,900$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 51c | 2,892$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 35c | 2,885$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 34c | 2,879$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.82 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 69c | 2,741$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 47c | 2,602$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 55c | 2,544$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 50c | 2,528$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.51 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 10c | 2,515$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 4c | 2,439$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…83d3backed Yes | 72c | 2,411$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 43c | 2,373$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.43 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,371$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.22 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 72c | 2,369$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 46c | 2,358$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.34 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…fec2backed Yes | 59c | 2,278$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 32c | 2,148$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.91 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 63c | 2,145$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.52 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 77c | 2,108$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,077$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 34c | 2,000$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 38c | 1,988$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.27 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…07aabacked No | 54c | 1,904$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 45c | 1,902$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 28c | 1,875$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 74c | 1,807$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 20c | 1,768$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed No | 59c | 1,757$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed No | 77c | 1,720$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 66c | 1,700$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…7a0ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,700$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed Yes | 70c | 1,692$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 59c | 1,688$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 41c | 1,656$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.77 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 51c | 1,622$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.79 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 4c | 1,616$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 49c | 1,567$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 27c | 1,535$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 53c | 1,419$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.85 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 7c | 1,411$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…cb83backed Yes | 41c | 1,402$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 33c | 1,395$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 39c | 1,363$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.02 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 1,285$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.07 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed No | 59c | 1,282$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 49c | 1,274$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 25c | 1,270$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,269$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 43c | 1,263$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 36c | 1,214$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 50c | 1,203$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.58 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 43c | 1,201$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.64 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed No | 36c | 1,161$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,135$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 36c | 1,127$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 76c | 1,091$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…65eebacked No | 73c | 1,088$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 59c | 1,074$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed No | 48c | 1,068$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 40c | 1,063$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 1,055$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 37c | 1,051$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.36 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…8895backed Yes | 48c | 1,035$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 1,033$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.13 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,006$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 18c | 1,003$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?this page
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.