Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02033cef06e942fbe1fdc9cc259abe9682265d349642598ab27ad677083d054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $517,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 43,827$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,887.23 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 35,950$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 0c | 14,524$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 12,862$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.07 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 14c | 9,992$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.98 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 20c | 9,205$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.03 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…b994backed No | 74c | 7,393$5,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 63c | 6,017$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.81 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 15c | 5,039$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 24c | 4,779$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 50c | 4,416$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 72c | 3,714$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 14c | 3,539$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 23c | 3,499$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.78 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 44c | 3,443$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.11 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 3,304$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.33 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 25c | 3,122$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.52 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 28c | 2,920$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 27c | 2,861$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 75c | 2,845$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.31 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 80c | 2,823$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.55 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 77c | 2,563$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.49 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 57c | 2,518$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.07 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 17c | 2,337$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 31c | 2,322$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…cb83backed Yes | 15c | 2,196$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 2,179$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.48 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 78c | 2,178$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.38 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 19c | 2,078$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes | 39c | 2,075$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 52c | 2,062$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 45c | 1,974$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 9c | 1,767$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…2342backed No | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 1,589$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 1,549$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 17c | 1,527$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 17c | 1,505$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 79c | 1,477$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,462$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ef…7761backed No | 79c | 1,421$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,360$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 50c | 1,328$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.59 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked No | 76c | 1,319$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 62c | 1,300$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 49c | 1,271$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.58 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 31c | 1,240$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 41c | 1,222$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,176$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 1,166$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 13c | 1,139$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,110$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,087$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…2914backed Yes | 28c | 1,054$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 71c | 1,010$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,009$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 965.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 38c | 962.34$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 32c | 937.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Yes | 44c | 918.52$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed No | 48c | 890.7$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.7 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 852.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed No | 71c | 843.16$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 24c | 809$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 28c | 786.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.19 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 31c | 775.6$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 28c | 773.38$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 15c | 750.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 12c | 730.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 714.19$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 30c | 700$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 48c | 684.73$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 79c | 679.1$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…0aedbacked Yes | 2c | 659.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed Yes | 40c | 650$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 14c | 645.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 24c | 635$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 10c | 622.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 68c | 618.9$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.75 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 30c | 603.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 601.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…83d3backed Yes | 32c | 600$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 11c | 576$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 63c | 532.87$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.75 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 64c | 515.48$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 9c | 492.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 35c | 474$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 12c | 471.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 56c | 460$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…5b1bbacked No | 71c | 452.37$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.