Music · resolved market
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b060914742bce2f377600e6bc2f8509d30f5637404c9d2d3fa394da0dbe93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 23c | 9,999$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 68c | 8,355$5,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.71 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 36c | 4,277$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 78c | 3,725$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1368…220fbacked Yes | 76c | 2,449$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Yes | 76c | 2,259$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.16 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 45c | 1,500$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.82 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 26c | 1,400$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 44c | 1,278$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 47c | 1,273$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.26 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 34c | 1,187$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…c145backed No | 16c | 1,133$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 37c | 1,098$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.96 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,094$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 62c | 1,072$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,033$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 8c | 1,027$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 23c | 986.99$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…11babacked Yes | 54c | 907.3$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +424.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 64c | 903.88$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.47 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 39c | 894$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 26c | 811.11$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 67c | 808.9$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.69 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 75c | 799.5$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.81 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 33c | 768.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a487backed Yes | 53c | 732.1$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.44 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 61c | 703$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…4e72backed Yes | 76c | 661.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 61c | 622$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 56c | 611$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…607ebacked Yes | 77c | 587.23$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 55c | 555$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 14c | 551.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…6696backed Yes | 64c | 543.84$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 44c | 534.37$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 61c | 454$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 61c | 440$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 376.49$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 38c | 375$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…4940backed No | 45c | 365.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +114%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 38c | 363$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 17c | 345.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 38c | 334$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 32c | 309.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200d…895abacked Yes | 78c | 284.62$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 39c | 267$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 58c | 258.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9957…bdcfbacked No | 27c | 244.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 39c | 231$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 78c | 222.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4496…97c0backed Yes | 72c | 215.12$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x482d…ba5ebacked Yes | 48c | 209.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 183.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…cd62backed No | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 60c | 167.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 164.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…99bdbacked Yes | 70c | 156.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 18c | 155$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 74c | 149.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 32c | 142.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 41c | 137.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 52c | 131.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…ee1cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf364…7d5ebacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 75c | 116.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 38c | 114.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…c8d8backed Yes | 78c | 110.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…a410backed Yes | 52c | 100.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Yes | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…b932backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 77c | 85.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 53c | 79.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 75c | 73.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 54c | 73.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed No | 25c | 67.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…0e10backed Yes | 33c | 59.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 63c | 56.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…1b8fbacked Yes | 54c | 53.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…bae7backed No | 45c | 51.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3780…6429backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…c524backed Yes | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked No | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…2d9bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed Yes | 75c | 41.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e3…17e1backed No | 27c | 39.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 47c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.