Music · resolved market
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39437da3b6b830f2798e5c8ff5a8a82f4b5241a832976c44f00145988a54db7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 3c | 5,434$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a803backed No | 2c | 4,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed No | 2c | 3,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 9c | 1,594$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…dd35backed No | 10c | 1,560$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…ee1cbacked No | 10c | 1,451$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…3dcfbacked No | 10c | 1,131$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab02…0ab4backed No | 10c | 1,025$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 2c | 948.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 1c | 846.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 5c | 799.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…5334backed No | 13c | 778$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…62cfbacked No | 13c | 771$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…7b40backed No | 13c | 756$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…16f6backed No | 13c | 721$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 2c | 657.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…93a4backed No | 13c | 623$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 3c | 622.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…8a76backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 78c | 144$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 78c | 112.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…a91cbacked No | 22c | 101.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 97.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…33a7backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.