TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d7…b035backed No20c15,025$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.7614835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No18c6,390$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.396334.9%22 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No21c3,722$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad8…cd62backed No20c3,721$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.762437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x895f…cfadbacked No25c2,850$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.93520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No20c2,656$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.3210630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No20c2,561$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.46333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed No19c2,096$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.415819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed Yes76c1,169$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No18c1,117$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.842015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed Yes74c1,033$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.621855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes80c980.02$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes74c913.6$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.972951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed No24c764$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No24c734$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed No20c700.65$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.131020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed No15c674.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.43119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No18c670$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No13c665.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3210235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No18c664$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.52633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No18c651$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed No23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.744012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No17c566.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.744131.7%13 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes76c554$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+87.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked No24c550$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No24c544$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes76c540$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No28c511.46$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.877425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked No22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105721.1%12 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes78c472.08$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes53c467.33$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.0622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes79c421.74$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.576144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes79c378.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.487139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed No19c372.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No14c350$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.887234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No18c347$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.978739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a09…cdffbacked No15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes76c329$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No15c310.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.595743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked No15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No15c281.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.54531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…c990backed No26c240$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes78c231.15$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.927549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked No19c222$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.122317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed No16c203.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed No21c178.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No23c176.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…4b5fbacked Yes79c172.51$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.681090%9 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick67cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Yes79c166.19$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes80c161.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked No27c157$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.794924.5%12 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No19c146.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.419939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No23c145$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0912835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad4…39fdbacked Yes70c143.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6071…fab9backed Yes80c139.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.95785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No38c133.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.683154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed No15c132.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202425%6 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…a8c9backed No20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed No19c123$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.373026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc173…b6e5backed No20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c116$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.724629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes80c111$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.214315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd084…bdc9backed No20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f50…1701backed No21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No15c93.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd7…ac41backed No19c89.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No21c83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.436043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…dfa0backed No18c76.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a4…77f0backed No22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Yes78c73.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.061258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe430…b09fbacked Yes80c68.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No20c64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7efb…68a1backed No25c59.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No25c44.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.897710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5267…378dbacked Yes80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ea…4fb7backed Yes79c31.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.57540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb81…4563backed Yes78c29.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.534100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes78c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.064042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Yes80c25.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.05580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7284…4f6cbacked Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.73941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.43852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…8cffbacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes79c15.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.194233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.