Music · resolved market
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74bb8830da1ebc834556013f83254287655c2c48e51f0c6bdacf214b34d20d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 9c | 10,484$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.52 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 10c | 6,451$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.82 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed No | 10c | 2,633$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.17 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 13c | 1,528$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 4c | 1,379$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 12c | 999.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed No | 3c | 761.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 4c | 759.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…cd62backed No | 4c | 750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 9c | 630.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 14c | 611$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 14c | 607$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed No | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 14c | 574$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 3c | 555.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 22c | 547.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 11c | 543$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 11c | 524$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 11c | 514$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 8c | 469.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 8c | 408.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 9c | 401.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 6c | 336.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked No | 9c | 252.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…dfa0backed No | 4c | 242.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed No | 8c | 234.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 9c | 222.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 9c | 193.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed No | 10c | 172.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…3be1backed No | 10c | 167.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +414.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 10c | 165.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 10c | 146.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…0360backed No | 10c | 143.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 115.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…e660backed No | 14c | 109.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…77f0backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…b6e5backed Yes | 77c | 65.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked No | 19c | 59.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…8eb8backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 68c | 25.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…9116backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.