TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes52c17,950$9,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,390.386144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No46c6,629$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.954531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No48c3,964$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.983141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+205.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed No54c3,867$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.763525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes3c3,700$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.872437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed Yes43c2,285$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.772835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No46c1,786$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.6410630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No65c1,590$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecde…c846backed Yes51c1,476$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.315030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes77c1,193$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.921266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No49c1,135$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.483348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No49c1,073$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.82015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No62c1,040$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No57c988.71$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.0610235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed No53c947.74$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.741266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed Yes35c811$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes35c779$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yes44c720.34$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…221abacked No61c652.12$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.12540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4496…97c0backed No80c651.77$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.479100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+67.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa440…a487backed Yes47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.53935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+72%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No36c603.82$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.875743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No46c542.9$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.587343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5406…b1cdbacked No52c534.22$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes38c529$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No53c524.14$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3414835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a3…2acdbacked No52c513.22$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2705…af94backed No52c513.17$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes38c511$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2f…0d79backed No52c510.26$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa31b…923bbacked No52c508.49$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9403…6bbcbacked No52c508.11$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf5…3eb5backed No52c507.18$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…1015backed No52c506.3$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd48…2ce1backed Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cda…0ef0backed No52c498.94$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8724…c252backed No52c494.53$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No51c478.52$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.856339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes21c469.37$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.121553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No49c460.31$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3412835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No57c426$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.042755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes42c417.04$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.52152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No55c381.59$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.188739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb22…ee1cbacked No51c345.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked No55c299.97$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.995633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x185a…4bbbbacked Yes47c293.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2e…0af4backed Yes47c291.12$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe656…1f4ebacked Yes47c288.5$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5729…4c51backed Yes47c285.81$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a3…0c95backed Yes47c285.3$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x097b…1e30backed Yes47c277.54$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d9c…38ffbacked Yes47c272.96$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d2…50febacked Yes47c263.95$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafa5…df15backed Yes47c263.19$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe336…ef55backed Yes47c257.96$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7562…e71fbacked No53c244.38$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3b…d9ddbacked No53c243.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No51c243$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.555111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1879…df34backed No53c242.82$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…7529backed No53c242.06$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc0…95a5backed No53c239.4$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2940…d265backed No53c238.87$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcc…35a5backed No49c238.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd72…98fbbacked No53c238.5$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0d…4498backed No51c238.22$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c5…71a0backed No53c237.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cce…e06dbacked No53c237.79$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11b9…8f3fbacked No53c236.82$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No69c235.98$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.231618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed17…f263backed No53c235.44$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb304…b420backed No53c235.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1d…ef02backed No53c235.32$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf044…6cf6backed No49c235.31$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d1…61b1backed No53c235.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…a693backed No53c235.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…1c21backed No53c235.05$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a34…5a96backed No54c234.72$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaec…351cbacked No53c234.41$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x235e…ee03backed No53c234.38$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc32…3106backed No53c234.25$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f4…e62cbacked No54c234.13$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…3bd6backed No53c233.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…a712backed No54c233.96$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa4…4130backed No53c233.76$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e3…ca49backed No53c233.69$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad3d…9977backed No53c233.62$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x504c…6ecfbacked No53c233.61$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…739abacked No53c233.56$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad4c…78afbacked No53c233.34$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c7…b8debacked No54c233.3$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa400…152cbacked No53c233.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…fcbebacked No53c233.26$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8216…501bbacked No54c233.25$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581a…ff50backed No53c233.23$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6652…7280backed No53c233.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f1…d2edbacked No53c233.14$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb9…ff36backed No53c233.12$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbac…969cbacked No53c233.08$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3097…bb91backed No53c233.06$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cff…fb69backed No54c233.02$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.