TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94c4…43cabacked No66c21,526$14,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,229.916144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes41c16,664$6,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,772.89944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes37c10,671$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,945.9914835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes28c6,076$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6954531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes42c4,228$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.617425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f2…e1c1backed No58c3,863$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+70.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2236…6e0cbacked No60c2,692$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Yes29c2,069$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9366…6350backed Yes35c1,531$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed No71c1,404$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No69c1,279$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.751770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No69c1,100$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.993560%21 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+213.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed No69c1,011$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.468140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes25c753.57$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd48…2ce1backed Yes31c750$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Yes29c748.52$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.463026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes31c730.14$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7712835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Yes40c710.36$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No63c660.06$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.34955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes38c653.17$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.54746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes33c640.52$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7910630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168e…aa56backed No78c640$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed Yes22c558$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed No78c558$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.763100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes32c543.59$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.393545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No78c541.71$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.769335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b3…4779backed Yes31c536.73$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes31c529$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes31c528$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No60c526.53$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.611464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed No69c510$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf50f…ccc1backed No79c509.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No71c503.64$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.281618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes27c499.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f09…fc31backed No69c426.3$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec5e…3d71backed No62c420.72$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.873928.2%11 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+345.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad8…cd62backed No58c389.53$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.972437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3f…32a4backed Yes28c381$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.681513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No70c378.87$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5514661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes38c364.82$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6419939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes28c355.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.045743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No60c350$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1408234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Yes22c344$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes44c326.51$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No69c320$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…23a7backed Yes25c307.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes22c296$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked No62c290$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…5b79backed Yes32c283$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No67c276$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.323348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6f…9b55backed No72c266.07$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No64c250$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.193151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes47c242.5$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No70c230.91$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.616339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c228.12$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.58923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes36c228.12$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.126253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No69c227$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes39c224.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.31407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+345.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a1…775bbacked Yes53c224.07$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9957…bdcfbacked Yes31c224.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked No61c219.95$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes27c217.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.673751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes33c210.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6210235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c8…dec4backed No66c209.58$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc173…b6e5backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes31c199.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed No68c179.2$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.345819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No63c176$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.421764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked No61c175.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes36c175.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.386544.6%29 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes28c165$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.84348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…c88dbacked No61c163.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.142138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3780…6429backed Yes31c162$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-66.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No73c161.93$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.297139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes34c154.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.656926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda8e…3edfbacked No67c151.43$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…dfc1backed No73c150$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc237…0432backed No75c146.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd3…2e34backed No70c143.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No68c134.83$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.358342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed No62c134$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.921060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes47c132$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.691241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed No72c129.33$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes31c126$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.064012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No59c119.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.999333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No78c115$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.34654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No78c111$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.424042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked No47c106.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.337549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes31c100.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.42015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473627.8%10 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9625…578fbacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.