Music · resolved market
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x589f0711c556490d6b45842dadf25b420855e88b25cfb06213012daaade08c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 17c | 3,594$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.07 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 6c | 1,160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 6c | 890.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 74c | 882$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 5c | 861.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 74c | 858$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 17c | 799.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Yes | 78c | 715.39$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 26c | 712$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 5c | 699.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 24c | 698.61$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 28c | 694$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…bf08backed Yes | 79c | 653.95$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 78c | 578.19$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 26c | 569$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 26c | 567$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 69c | 512.12$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…ffebbacked No | 21c | 501.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…516dbacked Yes | 73c | 474.01$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes | 76c | 299.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 6c | 295.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…0360backed No | 8c | 257.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 23c | 218$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed No | 6c | 216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 6c | 199.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed No | 12c | 188.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…7344backed No | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 77c | 166$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 19c | 111.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 24c | 93.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 78c | 77.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 58.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 62c | 39.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 73c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…6df9backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.