Music · resolved market
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a2bee6b7fde7ee88998a85a7651436bb22c7743f337c09fe955996795d2e1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeb5…a803backed No | 1c | 11,481$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 0c | 9,431$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed No | 1c | 5,469$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 3,385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…7344backed No | 1c | 2,518$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ce…3346backed No | 1c | 1,889$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…1701backed No | 1c | 1,665$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed No | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…354bbacked No | 48c | 1,288$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…64a2backed Yes | 52c | 1,288$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 250.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 77c | 198.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 23c | 163$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 91.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked Yes | 78c | 84.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.