TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,279 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x482d…ba5ebacked Yes70c4,308$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.452157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed No30c2,900$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8701020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked No29c2,365$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.516144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No38c2,083$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79610235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No29c1,872$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.513560%21 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+213.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No28c1,505$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.5914835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No29c1,288$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.027723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No31c1,200$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No29c1,178$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.932015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes58c857.94$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.029335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No31c844.82$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.377234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed Yes66c761.88$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.881266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Yes70c735.31$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No29c730.33$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.725743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes70c725$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.7514661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa440…a487backed No36c638.85$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.53935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+72%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2cd…607ebacked Yes71c633.8$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.85100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x444c…51f6backed Yes67c584.36$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No32c509.87$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.433348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No29c496.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0119939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes68c481.53$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4825…f3a3backed Yes71c422.66$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.275100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No30c400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.028739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.056028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed Yes65c387$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No35c387$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes77c380.79$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+98.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3f…32a4backed No27c361.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.641513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No31c299.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.217345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb22…ee1cbacked Yes72c265.83$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c7…9719backed Yes72c264.08$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes73c263.13$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.637139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No26c257.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.186334.9%22 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes69c253.93$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.721266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes70c242.82$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.75633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes55c230.4$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.34835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes71c226.04$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.042568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No30c225.75$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.057343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes68c214$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.256043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes70c206.26$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.798342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3e…1aeabacked No30c205$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c4…aa2ebacked Yes74c189.3$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes25c182.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.992040%8 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…770ebacked Yes73c172.73$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.73650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…55a2backed Yes72c168.12$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No36c168.11$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.884042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6f…b20fbacked No37c163.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed Yes62c163.56$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.151855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Yes70c160$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f36…0c41backed Yes71c154.93$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed No33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502425%6 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49bb…a0dfbacked Yes69c147.38$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes68c146.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.873345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf364…7d5ebacked Yes72c139.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+11.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5377…15f7backed Yes70c139.33$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…b6e5backed Yes61c134.42$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.422433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…c6e2backed No38c132.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…61f4backed Yes69c130.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x735e…6805backed No38c129.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a09…cdffbacked No34c127.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.051346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No32c126.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes70c124.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked No29c112.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.957549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No27c112.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2615119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…e1c1backed No31c108.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+70.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…e602backed Yes71c107$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c55…aaaabacked Yes67c102.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186c…11cebacked Yes68c101.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.691931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.66926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8231…652bbacked No20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No32c99.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd488…7393backed Yes71c98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…bafbbacked Yes72c97.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes68c92.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa23d…da1fbacked Yes73c91.17$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.232334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c87.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked No34c86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.424924.5%12 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e3…17e1backed Yes67c82.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-83.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes65c81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.354042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.128234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed Yes72c76.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No30c73.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No27c72.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Yes74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.54339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de6…42c4backed Yes71c67.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c59.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No35c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.995030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No35c58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7f…35c1backed No35c57.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No38c54.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4939116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xffc6…411fbacked No37c53.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cd…f896backed Yes68c52.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dd…9b5abacked No43c51.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.34148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.