TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$486,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$507,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 705 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes41c12,315$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,251.185016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…7134backed Yes77c9,099$7,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c8,440$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes64c7,615$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.678815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c7,148$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,605.5110126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes65c6,050$3,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.492458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes66c5,611$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.5511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed Yes29c4,848$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.371136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c3,826$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.512560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…7001backed No56c3,455$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.62875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+148.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa95b…2047backed No3c2,963$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No25c2,854$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Yes57c2,784$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ff…c537backed Yes55c2,772$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.921330.8%4 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick63cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes16c2,435$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.352425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…6cebbacked No4c2,403$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb764…7b1dbacked No4c2,299$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f15…569fbacked Yes77c2,201$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No37c2,041$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.1220148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No56c2,034$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.932161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x762f…b2c0backed No3c2,006$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8a…3d2bbacked No3c1,989$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d33…1522backed No4c1,882$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5d…6e7dbacked Yes75c1,868$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,793$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0221713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe07c…1307backed Yes36c1,770$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No29c1,735$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.775012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29fe…218fbacked No4c1,688$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked Yes76c1,686$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.212445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Yes24c1,681$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xade9…8cecbacked No4c1,675$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes73c1,652$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.833076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc4e…818abacked Yes61c1,639$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed Yes16c1,607$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed No52c1,579$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.564032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked Yes42c1,574$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Yes65c1,536$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba03…1850backed No4c1,529$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes35c1,518$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.038241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c1,481$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5feb…0601backed No4c1,472$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7a…afb6backed No4c1,444$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c1,426$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.1347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed Yes33c1,414$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.381741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc891…faf5backed No4c1,395$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…d487backed No4c1,334$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3e…3074backed Yes75c1,329$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.094100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes33c1,313$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.711526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…a652backed Yes67c1,245$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.81366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fa…89ffbacked No3c1,244$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes46c1,238$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.143925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda9…09d1backed Yes69c1,218$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f6…e13fbacked No3c1,197$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d83…f54cbacked No4c1,194$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f1…d7fbbacked Yes51c1,194$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No67c1,155$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.852343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1723…1795backed Yes70c1,141$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3987…d39bbacked No4c1,135$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No53c1,130$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.918650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813c…f6d3backed No4c1,127$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed Yes78c1,111$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.642050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No49c1,105$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0114643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed No43c1,080$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes75c1,063$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.751741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x385f…b6d6backed No4c1,059$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes33c1,053$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.511442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d94…57fbbacked No4c1,053$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1850…c06bbacked No4c1,046$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b6…8307backed No4c1,022$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea4f…ca38backed No3c1,021$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes62c1,008$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.041631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes47c1,001$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.784729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd61d…5446backed Yes9c1,000$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9101100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes12c983$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+88.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes12c979$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No4c977.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed Yes52c962$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes45c961$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+5.4wins+0.30per pick31cpaid+144.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes17c959.08$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.961225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f4…d6debacked No58c933$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.571060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+85.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c930$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.42003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…afc0backed No3c921$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d10…0ffcbacked No3c910$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c903.78$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.141867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed Yes25c900$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+168.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes67c884.1$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.951040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eca…ead6backed Yes51c872.7$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c864$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.742522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked Yes58c862$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No48c860$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No67c860$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes47c854$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.621844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes33c851$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.171833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9067…577abacked No3c848$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes75c846$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+52.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3cdf…ae07backed No3c830$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No11c813.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96dc…8073backed Yes58c805.25$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes28c803.02$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.9320418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.