AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca915295bd6a0e922bce7977ac8d7616c4d0a2ae056b81df29bc9b623176a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 21,480$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 15,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 1c | 7,842$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,526$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 5,297$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…2cd7backed Yes | 2c | 4,183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 3,930$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…72c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,551$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 2c | 3,031$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 1c | 2,793$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,568$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1f…069dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,354$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…23f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,264$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Yes | 5c | 2,015$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 1c | 1,983$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 1,776$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,736$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,724$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…ff55backed Yes | 1c | 1,648$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1898…f7ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,598$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…281bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,536$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…fccdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,475$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 1c | 1,268$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,244$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 1,153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,084$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…113abacked Yes | 1c | 964.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…ebaabacked Yes | 1c | 828$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 2c | 785.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 521.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.