TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$435,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$399,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,044 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09e3…48acbacked Yes66c12,049$7,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,908.43825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb4d…7001backed Yes30c8,313$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.37875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+148.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed Yes22c7,705$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c7,637$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0226312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes35c7,567$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.7811723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes12c6,271$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca2…7134backed Yes61c6,224$3,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,795.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Yes25c5,835$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes29c5,179$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.145016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Yes47c4,248$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.21540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes1c4,213$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…6b01backed Yes73c4,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e13…b386backed No26c3,881$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,870.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes19c3,544$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.164818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c3,473$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.222920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes65c3,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…2371backed Yes4c2,927$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes66c2,571$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x867c…7419backed Yes73c2,500$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed Yes39c2,301$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes16c2,212$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.32740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes50c2,210$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8189…df3bbacked Yes74c2,200$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf8…ac0abacked Yes3c2,194$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60a…0aecbacked Yes3c2,182$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe26f…add7backed Yes3c2,117$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3309…a01dbacked Yes3c2,013$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea8…0810backed Yes3c1,943$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe447…4ab2backed Yes74c1,800$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,800$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…2e9ebacked Yes4c1,791$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,710$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.372560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No5c1,654$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.629435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed No73c1,650$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+168.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19e…598bbacked Yes3c1,614$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes34c1,610$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.265012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c1,566$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…bb23backed Yes73c1,500$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a23…3e66backed Yes3c1,493$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bd…82dbbacked Yes3c1,483$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes35c1,399$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.651553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8412…b77bbacked Yes3c1,387$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c1,383$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.9120148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0661…4712backed Yes3c1,364$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa423…fd1dbacked Yes53c1,340$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes32c1,329$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.281040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes56c1,284$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7253076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No77c1,247$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.028650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes72c1,240$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.161266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+105.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes25c1,238$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4428…1202backed Yes3c1,233$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes73c1,232$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes52c1,230$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.981250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e17…0402backed Yes3c1,228$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602d…b4c7backed Yes3c1,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No70c1,172$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1314643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked No32c1,165$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c1,132$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1110126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes39c1,098$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.221030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes68c1,070$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes73c1,069$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.371266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8712…e49dbacked Yes3c1,047$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes37c1,042$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.542737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…6b24backed Yes3c1,036$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf614…c345backed No61c1,003$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1864…fb0dbacked Yes4c1,002$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ea…9b59backed Yes46c993.63$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a0…cae1backed No27c989$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes39c980$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.961758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xceda…475abacked Yes3c974$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes75c962.37$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7251250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9249…67b8backed Yes3c954$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…ac30backed Yes3c949$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes77c947$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No27c942$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.662462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes29c941.05$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.691275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes31c930$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes31c926$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.061050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814b…0052backed Yes3c924$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed Yes70c916$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No68c910$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.22560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…24adbacked Yes3c909$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4b…1bb6backed Yes3c909$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No33c900.33$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.692450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b84…c76abacked Yes27c898.12$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes69c876$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.441040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7f…f670backed Yes3c860$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…15f8backed Yes3c851$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd188…0116backed Yes3c849$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No69c845$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bc…5377backed Yes43c834.94$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c7…62dabacked Yes67c820.83$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes69c813$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.971540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes62c810.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f4…a19cbacked Yes3c809$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656e…d6dbbacked Yes3c805$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b1…1933backed Yes2c800.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed No30c796$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.21376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.35per pick42cpaid+122.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8524…9a5dbacked Yes3c781$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed Yes39c778$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.421050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.