AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe4fce0f6b42e1311920c5f1a8b409c7fe74943e1eb4991e6862333dadaf8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 66c | 12,049$7,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,908.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…7001backed Yes | 30c | 8,313$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 22c | 7,705$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,637$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 35c | 7,567$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.78 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 12c | 6,271$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…7134backed Yes | 61c | 6,224$3,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,795.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 25c | 5,835$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 29c | 5,179$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.14 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Yes | 47c | 4,248$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 1c | 4,213$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…6b01backed Yes | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…b386backed No | 26c | 3,881$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 19c | 3,544$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.16 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 3,473$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…2371backed Yes | 4c | 2,927$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 66c | 2,571$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…7419backed Yes | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 39c | 2,301$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 16c | 2,212$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.3 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 50c | 2,210$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…df3bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,200$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…ac0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,194$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…0aecbacked Yes | 3c | 2,182$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…add7backed Yes | 3c | 2,117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a01dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,013$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…0810backed Yes | 3c | 1,943$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe447…4ab2backed Yes | 74c | 1,800$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…2e9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,791$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,710$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 1,654$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.62 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 73c | 1,650$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…598bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,614$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 1,610$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.26 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,566$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…bb23backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…3e66backed Yes | 3c | 1,493$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…82dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,483$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 35c | 1,399$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…b77bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,387$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 1,383$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.91 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…4712backed Yes | 3c | 1,364$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,340$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 32c | 1,329$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 56c | 1,284$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 1,247$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.02 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 72c | 1,240$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 25c | 1,238$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…1202backed Yes | 3c | 1,233$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 73c | 1,232$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 52c | 1,230$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…0402backed Yes | 3c | 1,228$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b4c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 1,172$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.13 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 32c | 1,165$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 1,132$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.11 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 39c | 1,098$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 68c | 1,070$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 73c | 1,069$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e49dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,047$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,042$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…6b24backed Yes | 3c | 1,036$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed No | 61c | 1,003$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…fb0dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,002$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…9b59backed Yes | 46c | 993.63$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 27c | 989$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 39c | 980$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…475abacked Yes | 3c | 974$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 75c | 962.37$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…67b8backed Yes | 3c | 954$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…ac30backed Yes | 3c | 949$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 77c | 947$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 27c | 942$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.66 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 29c | 941.05$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 31c | 930$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 31c | 926$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814b…0052backed Yes | 3c | 924$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 70c | 916$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 68c | 910$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…24adbacked Yes | 3c | 909$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…1bb6backed Yes | 3c | 909$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 33c | 900.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b84…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 898.12$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 69c | 876$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…f670backed Yes | 3c | 860$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…15f8backed Yes | 3c | 851$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…0116backed Yes | 3c | 849$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 69c | 845$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 43c | 834.94$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…62dabacked Yes | 67c | 820.83$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 69c | 813$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 62c | 810.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…a19cbacked Yes | 3c | 809$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…d6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 805$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b1…1933backed Yes | 2c | 800.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 30c | 796$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.2 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…9a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 781$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 39c | 778$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.