AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa505f147c26bdb170081fba235464a47fc315da40884345dd4e755c53510705a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 22,746$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 20,079$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 7c | 17,937$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.65 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 7,640$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.48 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 4c | 6,595$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 4c | 6,025$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.74 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c196backed Yes | 0c | 3,909$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,331$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,860$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 18c | 2,293$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 7c | 2,237$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 1,448$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,424$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…908fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,412$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 13c | 1,395$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 12c | 1,317$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…2c65backed Yes | 1c | 1,232$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5529backed Yes | 10c | 1,101$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 6c | 1,090$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,037$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 19c | 1,027$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 12c | 1,014$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 12c | 968$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 12c | 934$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 7c | 926.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 12c | 915.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 902.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 887.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 877.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…4cc2backed Yes | 1c | 850$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 19c | 841$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 12c | 813$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 24c | 786$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 12c | 782$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…0454backed Yes | 14c | 711.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 12c | 687$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 22c | 683$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 12c | 668$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 13c | 653$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 78c | 612$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 2c | 566.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 12c | 561$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed Yes | 26c | 559$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 76c | 526$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…c2b6backed Yes | 23c | 520.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 514.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +276.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 12c | 498$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 80c | 493$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 20c | 493$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 487.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed Yes | 12c | 478$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 12c | 475$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 12c | 465$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 12c | 422$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 12c | 418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…a36bbacked Yes | 3c | 416.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 12c | 405$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 11c | 395.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes | 12c | 395$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 12c | 390$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 13c | 386$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 3c | 375.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864b…dfedbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 12c | 371$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 13c | 369$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 13c | 365$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 15c | 363$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 352.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 9c | 335.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 76c | 331$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 12c | 321$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed Yes | 3c | 301.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…2a8dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…3f6cbacked Yes | 16c | 281.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes | 13c | 280$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 273.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 12c | 269$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…79d0backed Yes | 9c | 244.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…7b41backed Yes | 18c | 241.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 12c | 221$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 17c | 219.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 215.35$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…7e61backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 189.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…5963backed Yes | 11c | 177.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 171.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 9c | 157.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…be47backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 26c | 142.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.