TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c22,746$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.882920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c20,079$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.542003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes7c17,937$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.658815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c7,640$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4810126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes4c6,595$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.336010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes1c6,250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.971717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes4c6,025$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.743315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeced…c196backed Yes0c3,909$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c3,331$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.272560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,860$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.432522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes18c2,293$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.83221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes7c2,237$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.622425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes10c1,500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.99130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes10c1,448$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.525012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,424$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.251,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes1c1,417$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2911723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…908fbacked Yes17c1,412$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+176.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes13c1,395$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.351338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes12c1,317$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.042657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed Yes1c1,232$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes10c1,101$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed Yes7c1,100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes6c1,090$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,060$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,037$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.62792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff0c…36eebacked Yes19c1,027$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed Yes12c1,014$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.681637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6307…0447backed Yes12c968$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.161010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes12c934$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.081540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes7c926.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.295016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed Yes12c915.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c902.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.332977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c887.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.733042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c877.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…4cc2backed Yes1c850$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed Yes19c841$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.791127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes12c813$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.56850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes24c786$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed Yes12c782$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc6…0454backed Yes14c711.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes12c687$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.441442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes22c683$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.263345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes12c668$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes13c653$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed No78c612$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.642040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes2c566.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes12c561$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de5…b2f4backed Yes26c559$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No76c526$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb36…c2b6backed Yes23c520.03$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes8c514.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes7c499.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+276.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed Yes12c498$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.761540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No80c493$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.61973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+84.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes20c493$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.62733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes9c487.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.26123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed Yes12c478$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes12c475$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes12c465$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.81050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes12c422$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.642828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked Yes12c418$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.162343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d46…a36bbacked Yes3c416.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes12c405$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1697…4cf6backed Yes12c403$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.361050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes11c395.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.19244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes12c395$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes12c390$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes13c386$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.181625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes3c375.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+150.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x864b…dfedbacked Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed Yes12c371$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.521560%9 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes13c369$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.972231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes13c365$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes15c363$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.45825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes7c352.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc759…b965backed Yes9c335.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.386015%9 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No76c331$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes12c321$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.521250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5b30backed Yes3c301.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767c…2a8dbacked Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-77.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f22…3f6cbacked Yes16c281.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.661030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes13c280$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes8c273.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes12c269$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.281060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1fa…79d0backed Yes9c244.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc801…7b41backed Yes18c241.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02ce…2213backed Yes12c221$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes17c219.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No78c215.35$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7211841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744c…7e61backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes7c189.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df2…5963backed Yes11c177.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes12c172$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.641747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c171.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1225122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c170$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes9c157.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94260%0 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bda…be47backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…fb46backed Yes12c145$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes26c142.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.724017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.