Movies · resolved market
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee5db5410b362783a1405b66b9aa08a7d050ae1f99e8da85b9d1ae7962dad3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,301$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe021…10e8backed Yes | 30c | 3,333$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 23c | 3,009$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 77c | 2,294$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 1,969$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 30c | 1,759$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 61c | 1,756$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 25c | 1,636$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 80c | 1,605$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 17c | 1,565$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.3 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 1,556$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,502$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 24c | 1,469$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 26c | 1,463$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 42c | 1,386$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 31c | 1,301$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 60c | 1,274$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 42c | 1,273$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,219$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 72c | 1,206$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 42c | 1,172$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 41c | 1,149$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd888…0471backed Yes | 13c | 1,143$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 18c | 1,134$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 79c | 1,121$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,094$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 54c | 1,091$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.69 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,082$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.06 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 58c | 1,055$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 13c | 1,034$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 31c | 1,029$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 58c | 1,004$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 14c | 953.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 77c | 950$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc6…7ce4backed Yes | 8c | 947.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 29c | 898.26$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 61c | 874$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 44c | 867$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 6c | 861.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 25c | 858.61$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 39c | 848$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 45c | 834.76$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 13c | 829.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 23c | 826$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed No | 76c | 824$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked No | 71c | 816$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 38c | 807$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 11c | 803.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 68c | 799$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 58c | 796$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed Yes | 23c | 785$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked No | 69c | 772$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 29c | 770$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 58c | 761$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 77c | 752$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 71c | 751$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 35c | 738$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 69c | 725$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 77c | 717$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 59c | 709$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 47c | 690$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 23c | 683$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 71c | 683$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 47c | 676$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 19c | 675$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 53c | 661$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…a0d7backed Yes | 6c | 657.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 25c | 653$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 40c | 637$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 78c | 633$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 22c | 633$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 53c | 621$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 40c | 609$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 31c | 607$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 28c | 593$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 30c | 591.2$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 65c | 587$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 70c | 586.2$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 53c | 585$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 65c | 580$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 31c | 570$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 58c | 567$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed No | 56c | 560$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 18c | 556.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 15c | 555$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…48d0backed Yes | 9c | 550.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed Yes | 4c | 550.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 35c | 537$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 39c | 537$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 67c | 528$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 72c | 527$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 80c | 526$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 65c | 521$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 7c | 520$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked No | 80c | 517$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 61c | 507$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 42c | 506$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 61c | 502$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…be40backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?this page
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.