TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes5c4,301$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe021…10e8backed Yes30c3,333$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed Yes23c3,009$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked No77c2,294$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c1,969$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.26933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes30c1,759$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.631330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No61c1,756$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.21944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes25c1,636$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No80c1,605$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.613148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes17c1,565$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.32619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c1,556$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.793426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes2c1,502$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes24c1,469$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.221346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes26c1,463$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.177945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…ab94backed Yes42c1,386$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.51742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes31c1,301$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked No60c1,274$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed Yes42c1,273$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+101.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes29c1,219$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.171435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No72c1,206$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.721323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed Yes42c1,172$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes41c1,149$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.242445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes2c1,145$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd888…0471backed Yes13c1,143$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes18c1,134$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.97616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No79c1,121$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.742142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c1,094$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.716237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes54c1,091$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.692630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes35c1,082$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.063745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed No58c1,055$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.162254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes13c1,034$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes31c1,029$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.91833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed No58c1,004$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes14c953.9$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.64728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No77c950$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.453141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc6…7ce4backed Yes8c947.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes29c898.26$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.58616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed No61c874$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes44c867$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.351266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+90.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes6c861.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes25c858.61$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.62387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes39c848$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.261573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes45c834.76$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.99825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes13c829.76$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.64894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes23c826$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.462934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd70e…0ac1backed No76c824$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked No71c816$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.09560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes38c807$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes11c803.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1514628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No68c799$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.481850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No58c796$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed Yes23c785$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e08…7e2ebacked No69c772$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed Yes29c770$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No58c761$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc03…cd5cbacked No77c752$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9f9ebacked No71c751$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes35c738$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.041450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked No69c725$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No77c717$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No59c709$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No47c690$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.463240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes23c683$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.141625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No71c683$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No47c676$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.313652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes19c675$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked No53c661$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6796…a0d7backed Yes6c657.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.05616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes25c653$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes40c637$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.162254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No78c633$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed Yes22c633$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.531631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes53c621$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.611650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes40c609$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.992030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes31c607$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.881540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes28c593$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.673135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd509…d6b7backed Yes30c591.2$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No65c587$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.042832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9892…0a7bbacked No70c586.2$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes53c585$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.811250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed No65c580$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.581540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes31c570$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked No58c567$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed No56c560$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes18c556.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes15c555$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.81850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…48d0backed Yes9c550.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes4c550.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes35c537$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.491546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed Yes39c537$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed No67c528$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.771625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No72c527$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.451233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No80c526$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.73785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No65c521$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.873063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes7c520$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.362623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x863b…7c6fbacked No80c517$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked No61c507$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.761250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes42c506$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+41.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked No61c502$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.791540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69a…be40backed Yes24c499.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.