TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7be4…8477backed Yes2c3,607$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.39728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd888…0471backed Yes4c3,344$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes1c2,908$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe021…10e8backed Yes8c2,357$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec80…2cd7backed Yes9c2,193$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes3c1,472$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.767945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes5c1,442$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.346331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes6c1,285$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.842619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf860…c045backed Yes5c1,152$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes6c1,107$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.92616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes5c1,027$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes8c966.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.62387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed Yes6c906.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed Yes22c894.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes4c826.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.78616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes7c821.09$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1614628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…5e27backed Yes7c785.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes3c733.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.543636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47de…61f9backed Yes7c691.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes12c672.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9b…e768backed Yes5c640.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.73520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6796…a0d7backed Yes5c618.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes10c583.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f0…3196backed Yes7c524.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6b…2ffcbacked Yes5c520.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba6…fd3bbacked Yes11c487.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53dd…96e4backed Yes8c485.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…21f3backed Yes6c476.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes5c456.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes8c446.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0613534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d62…df5cbacked Yes6c428.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…48d0backed Yes6c427.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c420$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.816237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc79…b55abacked Yes9c395.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…5635backed Yes5c389.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c380.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes5c369.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.413333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes5c340.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.115251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e4c…d249backed Yes8c339.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.291020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1938…ba1fbacked Yes8c330.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.07616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf904…26e5backed Yes9c324$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4c…afe5backed Yes8c314.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe919…da2dbacked Yes10c306.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.66616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes7c302.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0914212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4682…4adebacked Yes5c302.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc386…28bebacked Yes20c294$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+455.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e82…587dbacked Yes5c290.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bf…bc57backed Yes4c287.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Yes9c283.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes13c268.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9df…9a33backed Yes9c266.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbb…dab4backed Yes7c264.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba1…a8e0backed Yes5c260.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes7c253.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeff…0390backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5215…c715backed Yes16c250$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ae…1ef1backed Yes5c239.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…f9e8backed Yes11c237.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98b0…a058backed Yes5c229.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes4c226.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.183461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7db…aa32backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x619f…f1d2backed Yes6c195.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…21babacked Yes10c191.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d08…25fdbacked Yes6c191.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes8c186.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-78.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be3…f4fbbacked Yes7c186.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c180.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.863426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x060d…8932backed Yes8c179.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…c2b8backed Yes10c171.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…a00cbacked Yes11c167.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…c0a6backed Yes11c160.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1adf…0376backed Yes7c160.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e5d…6c8cbacked Yes12c158$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes9c152.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed6a…019abacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…50a4backed Yes13c146.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…9ce2backed Yes7c145.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4255…3f69backed Yes13c143.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+129.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0b…3988backed Yes9c139.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a7…7651backed Yes12c134.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…e4a9backed Yes8c129.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b1…2869backed Yes9c123.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca19…4f58backed Yes9c118.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d8a…9b58backed Yes13c115.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f200backed Yes11c92.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…ae34backed Yes13c82.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a7…2f0bbacked Yes50c41.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c22.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0820850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.