World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99c83168c5b3acd1562d91a09bdd76bfe73cf8c468d457807cb1ea43cdeefd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb488…bbf7backed Yes | 19c | 998.53$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 15c | 735$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 15c | 632$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…1f49backed Yes | 16c | 620.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 574.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 15c | 534$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdce…b557backed Yes | 7c | 478$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…3739backed Yes | 16c | 460.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 20c | 456.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…b3cfbacked Yes | 25c | 370$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 75c | 253.32$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…4ad6backed Yes | 8c | 206.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…4f15backed Yes | 36c | 138.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 15c | 138$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edd…b8d8backed Yes | 15c | 136.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 121.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…872bbacked Yes | 17c | 105.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 95.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…644cbacked Yes | 19c | 92.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 87.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 78.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…a86dbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…8b4ebacked Yes | 15c | 74.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…3d6bbacked Yes | 23c | 71.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3d…9129backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the National Citizen Party finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.