TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes64c2,000$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.921735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed Yes60c1,664$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.942560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes65c1,409$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed No40c1,212$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked No40c1,196$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.031643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No40c1,144$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.462050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed No40c975$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.032142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes60c944$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.241338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdece…08dbbacked No40c942$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked No40c906$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.491163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+99.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed Yes76c896$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes60c882$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.152161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Yes60c823$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.381855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe590…87bfbacked Yes60c797$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No40c796$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd80d…b42bbacked Yes60c768$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed No40c743$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x427e…5ab4backed Yes60c727$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed No40c726$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.672828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked No40c723$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No40c677$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.122744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No40c668$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.531822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed No40c668$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.532035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No40c665$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.342040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes60c631$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.773345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Yes60c599$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2391353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c1…6512backed No40c599$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes60c585$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.25825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes60c570$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.431145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes60c567$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.231241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No40c564$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.041844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes60c554$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe70…e8e9backed No40c521$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.361050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed No40c513$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.691650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No40c467$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.332441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed Yes60c464$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.141471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+76.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes60c452$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.354100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked No40c439$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No18c436$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.042343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes60c423$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.782441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked No24c421$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.622045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No18c414$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.112147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No25c410$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes60c391$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.012657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No20c389$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.632025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes60c388$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.811040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Yes60c376$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+123.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed No40c374$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.231457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked No40c373$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.831330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4744…e229backed Yes60c368$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.831435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed Yes60c366$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.94450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1100…815ebacked No18c364$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.16825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3684…9669backed No40c361$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.041631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed No24c348$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+78.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No40c327$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.152040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x610f…1edabacked Yes60c320$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.68560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked No40c307$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed No40c303$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-74.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No40c291$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes60c272$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.531844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No15c272$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No40c258$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.941540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes60c251$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.152330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0016…1b7abacked Yes60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+78.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed Yes60c241$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.161250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No40c238$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed Yes60c233$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No15c232$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08c9…bee7backed Yes60c228$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+86.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No6c195.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.916524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No40c189$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.411560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+80.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c65…5ad5backed Yes60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf614…c345backed Yes60c148$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked No24c127$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+124.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc351…08f7backed No40c112$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes60c107$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.692263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed No40c105$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ba…e6cebacked No40c102$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick38cpaid+81.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked Yes60c98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+87.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed No40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No16c70.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes60c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.331741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed Yes60c63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.011560%9 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x591c…390dbacked No40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes60c62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.742462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No40c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.442250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa098…81e4backed No40c46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.671060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes60c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.571586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+108.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x809d…c03dbacked Yes74c26.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes78c19.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes70c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.16055%33 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.