AI · resolved market
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a8353b866891fb27496106c4d535b91d7d80ae2008f3248e330d406e44b41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,420$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 30c | 1,276$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 30c | 1,125$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 70c | 931$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 30c | 901$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked No | 50c | 844$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 70c | 801$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 70c | 777$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed No | 10c | 745$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 20c | 742$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 70c | 728$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 70c | 723$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 19c | 678$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 70c | 654$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 20c | 617$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 20c | 516$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 10c | 491$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 30c | 484$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…2ff3backed No | 9c | 448.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 18c | 447$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 70c | 440$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 20c | 385.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 30c | 378$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 13c | 377$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed No | 50c | 364$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 19c | 356$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 18c | 309$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 25c | 298$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 19c | 292$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 70c | 289$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 19c | 281$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 30c | 274$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 29c | 243.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 10c | 241$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 30c | 232$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…9a7cbacked No | 18c | 209.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 10c | 163$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 147$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed Yes | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 25c | 119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…0762backed No | 24c | 98.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 25c | 84.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 18c | 82.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…9f30backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 20c | 49.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89d…9f63backed Yes | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…3b3dbacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.