TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb976…c213backed Yes67c1,469$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.231833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c2…1be5backed No77c1,390$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.71560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1787…44a9backed Yes23c976$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+109.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6537…fcecbacked No77c892$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes11c789.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes23c773$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.793345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No77c748$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.041376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+100.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed No77c735$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed Yes23c734$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.821560%9 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No77c729$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.67875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+82.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No33c695$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.651936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed No77c659$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No33c608$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.361656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes23c581$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.631723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes23c562$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.261353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed No77c551$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfec9…b7c0backed Yes23c489$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes23c483$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.091931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No77c432$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+179.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes76c416$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.162035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No24c416$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes23c415$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.451747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes23c387$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes23c384$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.321643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes23c333$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.592744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1697…4cf6backed No77c330$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed Yes23c323$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed Yes23c280$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed No77c245$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.351266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked No77c216$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed Yes23c204$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01dd…fb46backed Yes23c188$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.241250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64ad…c47fbacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed No77c144$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No77c103$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.692520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa150…d291backed No55c97.31$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked No77c84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd71f…fe71backed Yes23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked No77c64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.721050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+115.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No77c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed No55c27.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.325246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…5698backed Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c44…a66ebacked No50c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes77c18.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3513971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.