AI · resolved market
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x913796014355d30d2769d52e55ecc448ddea6c2de0aafc3a5a4d876f884ec260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 67c | 1,469$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 77c | 1,390$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 23c | 976$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 77c | 892$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes | 11c | 789.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 23c | 773$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 77c | 748$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed No | 77c | 735$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 23c | 734$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 77c | 729$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 33c | 695$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 77c | 659$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 33c | 608$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 23c | 581$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 23c | 562$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 77c | 551$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed Yes | 23c | 489$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 23c | 483$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 77c | 432$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 76c | 416$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 24c | 416$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 23c | 415$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 387$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 23c | 384$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed No | 77c | 330$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed Yes | 23c | 323$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 23c | 280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 77c | 245$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 77c | 216$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 23c | 204$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed Yes | 23c | 188$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…c47fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 77c | 144$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…d291backed No | 55c | 97.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 55c | 27.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…a66ebacked No | 50c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 18.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.