AI · resolved market
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cbcd6ad651a95d8b02b41bce84970fa2cf239990c7fdc7ad125b5b0576d07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 44c | 1,014$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed No | 10c | 956$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 66c | 893$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 34c | 881$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.28 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 68c | 876$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 33c | 868$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.56 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 32c | 868$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 48c | 811$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 68c | 803$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 67c | 761$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 32c | 757$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 68c | 683$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 10c | 653$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 16c | 650$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 32c | 637$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 68c | 615$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 26c | 603$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed No | 68c | 591$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 10c | 572$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 32c | 565$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 65c | 563$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 35c | 553$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked No | 65c | 547$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed Yes | 32c | 546$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 10c | 531$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 49c | 508.9$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 32c | 470$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 52c | 461$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 68c | 456$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…0762backed No | 69c | 415$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 11c | 399$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 10c | 393$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 68c | 384$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 10c | 375$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 32c | 355$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 68c | 348$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 32c | 348$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 32c | 330$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 68c | 303$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 68c | 284$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 32c | 255$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed Yes | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 32c | 238$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 32c | 237$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 10c | 232$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 10c | 223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 32c | 221$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 67c | 210$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 32c | 199$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 32c | 197$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed No | 65c | 195$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 30c | 173.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 32c | 166$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 52c | 155$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 32c | 134$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 32c | 119$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 90.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 35c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +112%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 32c | 36.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Disgraziad" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Independence" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Switzerland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Too late" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.