CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs METANOIAGG (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39400184f2c14200abf67811674e705c719713571b5b82847c13e85c63580be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bad Luckof Bad Luck, METANOIAGG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Bad Luck | 51c | 1,267$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Bad Luck | 56c | 1,100$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +158%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 1,017$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Bad Luck | 51c | 1,015$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…c3f1backed METANOIAGG | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 784$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Bad Luck | 51c | 706$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 700$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Bad Luck | 51c | 639$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 557$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 477$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 473$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Bad Luck | 51c | 396$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Bad Luck | 51c | 312$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Bad Luck | 51c | 307$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked METANOIAGG | 49c | 186$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 173$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed METANOIAGG | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Bad Luck | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked METANOIAGG | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Bad Luck | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.