Us Politics · resolved market
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b491684e8da820d50490448c0893f520b12648e07bccb34808c93e4d354b28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,979$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,881$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 1,418$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 1,250$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,057$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 22c | 789$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 780.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 78c | 753$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 20c | 734$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 42c | 701$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 59c | 699$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 695.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked No | 58c | 688$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 80c | 685$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 79c | 587$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 21c | 587$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 11c | 576$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 543$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 511.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…6b82backed Yes | 7c | 458.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 15c | 414$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 24c | 381$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 76c | 381$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 32c | 378.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 59c | 294$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 75c | 233.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked No | 80c | 214.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 7c | 209.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 11c | 201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…9e18backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 18c | 165.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 80c | 164.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 79c | 128$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…5e12backed Yes | 15c | 120.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 104.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 73c | 77.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 59c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…d05ebacked Yes | 24c | 70.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 23c | 63.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 77c | 62.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…336abacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 74c | 39.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…987abacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…59dcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Mira Nair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.