TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes10c1,979$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.99160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes7c1,881$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c1,418$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.761227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c1,250$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.76476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes41c1,057$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes22c789$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes3c780.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.412630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f87…3929backed No78c753$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes20c734$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes42c701$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.42450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No59c699$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes13c695.84$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5714528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x154e…ed0cbacked No58c688$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec9…b7c0backed No80c685$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No79c587$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes21c587$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes11c576$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c543$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.761,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c511.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.761343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fb…6b82backed Yes7c458.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes15c414$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes24c381$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+204.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed No76c381$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes32c378.41$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.245042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No59c294$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No75c233.23$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.154266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…22cbbacked No80c214.82$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes7c209.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.472119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes11c201$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb76d…9e18backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes18c165.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.432222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No80c164.91$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.246540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ee…4b33backed No79c128$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.16560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes15c120.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes23c104.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1333618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes24c95.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No73c77.81$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.033253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed No59c71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df5…d05ebacked Yes24c70.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes23c63.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.454916.3%8 W · 41 L-9.8wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No77c62.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0d…336abacked No76c54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.965100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.782245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No80c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes23c47.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.882832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No74c39.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed No78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes30c34.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.282839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes47c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No76c26.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.16540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53db…987abacked No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.16785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b8…59dcbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.83345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.