TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,283 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf06d…db77backed Yes13c903$117 inLost-$117.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c580.63$53 inLost-$53.1214528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes13c473$61 inLost-$61.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-39.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes14c314$44 inLost-$43.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1acf…10babacked Yes12c173.08$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes33c153.72$50 inLost-$502615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9995…d0d3backed Yes14c145$20 inLost-$19.672222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c127.11$25 inLost-$24.933618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf20a…2b93backed Yes8c125$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes13c105$14 inLost-$14.056833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes14c91$13 inLost-$12.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes13c88$11 inLost-$11.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2d…4fa5backed No69c81.49$56 inWon+$25.07988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeec4…30b5backed Yes36c79.54$29 inLost-$28.91612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-81%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No53c79$42 inWon+$37.173164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes19c69.5$13 inLost-$13.472871.4%20 W · 8 L+9.7wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+117.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x926c…5234backed No62c39.26$24 inWon+$14.876100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b49…acc4backed No74c22.63$17 inWon+$5.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Yes54c20$11 inLost-$10.850%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.