Us Politics · resolved market

Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d048127a8dd0a65bbfe31dd269f25dcfbfda0fa807639d5de36c778c035a63f

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,126 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes	10c	2,520$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.5	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	7c	1,800$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.16	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,378$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.18	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	9c	1,250$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes	13c	924$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed Yes	15c	688$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes	15c	506$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+91.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf910…7467backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	498.25$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	14c	365.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.63	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	63c	284.38$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.18	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	283$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes	12c	245.71$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes	15c	244$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	16cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes	35c	240.08$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.18	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes	15c	205$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes	15c	164$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	131.4$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes	17c	120$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea72…d821backed Yes	25c	115.72$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes	18c	110.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	22c	95.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	42c	95.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.64	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	11c	91.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed No	55c	39.47$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.93	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+9.7wins	+0.34per pick	37cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xef3a…c4ffbacked No	56c	35.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	31c	33.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No	62c	19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.22	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event