TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8669…7111backed Yes14c691$97 inLost-$96.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes22c650$143 inLost-$14320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed Yes12c646$78 inLost-$77.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No78c503$392 inWon+$110.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes16c496.27$81 inLost-$81.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes15c478$72 inLost-$71.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes15c447$67 inLost-$67.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c371.28$30 inLost-$29.7514528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c8b…85dabacked Yes14c365.88$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes18c310.96$55 inLost-$552615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes15c309$46 inLost-$46.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c150.41$36 inLost-$36.110135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No78c147$115 inWon+$32.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes15c145$22 inLost-$21.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes21c130$27 inLost-$27.2133618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost-$1344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes12c86$10 inLost-$10.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No77c71.24$55 inWon+$16.243751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked No70c46.71$32 inWon+$14.221485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No80c23.22$19 inWon+$4.645343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No79c16$13 inWon+$3.362832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.