TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c569.97$48 inLost-$48.0414528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes13c525$68 inLost-$68.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed Yes13c367$48 inLost-$47.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes11c335$37 inLost-$36.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed Yes11c294$32 inLost-$32.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes20c264.02$53 inLost-$53.046833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes15c185$28 inLost-$27.752035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed Yes11c181$20 inLost-$19.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No77c172$132 inWon+$404266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes36c164$59 inLost-$59.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed No64c164$105 inWon+$59.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes11c163$18 inLost-$17.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9995…d0d3backed Yes15c158.85$24 inLost-$23.592222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes12c138.33$17 inLost-$16.64247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8088…1a90backed Yes37c124.47$46 inLost-$45.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3864…23e1backed Yes9c123.34$11 inLost-$10.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-76.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c119.84$22 inLost-$22.161,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd976…0aa2backed Yes13c112.53$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes15c97.08$14 inLost-$14.22222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes14c87.52$13 inLost-$12.5333618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c69$18 inLost-$17.731,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked No70c57.5$40 inWon+$17.51485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.93855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No79c15.02$12 inWon+$3.094816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.