Us Politics · resolved market

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0c6fe3f4789826c0b4923e173e2d8b71dc24692b8397d944d4be867a0b0514

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,652 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfa3f…6e13backed No	65c	1,008$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	939.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	11c	664.81$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.68	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	483.01$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.27	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes	35c	416$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	7c	410.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	3c	355.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes	35c	342$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-56%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes	14c	291.08$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.53	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes	27c	286.6$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.76	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes	35c	250$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes	22c	200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	8c	174.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	152.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked No	80c	149.5$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	41	82.9%34 W · 7 L	+10.5wins	+0.26per pick	57cpaid	+42%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	20c	139.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	62c	137.95$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.8	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf20a…2b93backed Yes	8c	126.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	10c	112.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes	10c	110.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes	10c	102$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No	78c	70$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No	64c	67.94$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.74	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes	32c	55.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.17per pick	32cpaid	-57%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4c3…e0ddbacked No	73c	55.75$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed Yes	37c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeec4…30b5backed Yes	39c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-4.3wins	-0.27per pick	40cpaid	-81%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed No	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event