Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3cfccf5fdc43de75e1dc69d63dad3667b7e66ce779ba56d64e2fd2b07d6ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes | 14c | 931.86$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 25c | 856$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed No | 80c | 853.97$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 75c | 840$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 14c | 745$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 23c | 668.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 621.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed No | 76c | 612.79$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 75c | 570$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…7467backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 496$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 464.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 12c | 375.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 33c | 366.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 74c | 365$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 26c | 365$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 25c | 344$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 75c | 344$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 323.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 25c | 302$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 77c | 278.08$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 25c | 199$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 75c | 144$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 75c | 142$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 141.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…2b93backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2a…72a6backed No | 75c | 116.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 113.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 111.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 79c | 103.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…0bfebacked Yes | 24c | 101.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…336abacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 85.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 24c | 76.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…34d6backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 64c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 62c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…c2aebacked Yes | 43c | 44.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 31c | 43.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 33.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…dc6bbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 62c | 31.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82f9…e91dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…3773backed No | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Mira Nair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.