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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,998 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b2d…4fa5backed No65c240$156 inWon+$84.19988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes27c135.79$37 inLost-$36.933618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c78.63$11 inLost-$11.171,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes18c60$11 inLost-$10.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes31c60$19 inLost-$18.64247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No73c58.89$43 inWon+$15.893458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes34c30.3$10 inLost-$10.34816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4ad…1684backed Yes49c30$15 inLost-$14.740%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Yes60c20$12 inLost-$1250%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc506…39fdbacked No80c20$16 inWon+$4475%3 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick79cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.