Us Politics · resolved market

Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a23a2bba58d56b2864266814f9896306f7eacf6d0f07924f70486317b5d3499

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	9c	1,700$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.21	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes	12c	1,399$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.43	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	13c	1,250$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.56	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	961$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e3…5907backed Yes	12c	883$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	6c	526.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf910…7467backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes	16c	482$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes	14c	470$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed Yes	22c	360$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed Yes	5c	357.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed No	78c	355$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes	14c	336$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes	12c	333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	10c	301.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	13c	297.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes	9c	260.55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes	12c	166$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes	21c	144.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.17per pick	32cpaid	-57%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	24c	138.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	120.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes	12c	96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	14c	73.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	19c	67.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No	74c	54.05$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	53c	23.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.19	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x926c…5234backed No	71c	21.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.42	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.2wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No	73c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.1	226	41.6%94 W · 132 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event