TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes9c3,698$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.48160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes6c2,700$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes6c1,784$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.012123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,384$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.631227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c1,250$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.92476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,234$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.261,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed Yes12c883$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes14c786$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed Yes3c768.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes11c729$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c600$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes11c520.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0614528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf910…7467backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes22c458.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes17c435.12$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.985042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f53…f9fabacked Yes25c405.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7815…0f35backed Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes11c388$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes14c370$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes17c328.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.985532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.673935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed Yes16c290$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes21c289.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.276540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes14c224.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No60c170.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.473164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdef4…00aebacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes17c112$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.722222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20a…2b93backed Yes9c111.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes25c99.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4133618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No64c96.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.254266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes11c96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed No72c85.4$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c85.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe37f…6b69backed Yes42c78.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No63c63.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…9033backed Yes36c41.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x926c…5234backed No66c33.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.346100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No69c27.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.283652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd0…174dbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa894…f6d5backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.