Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe8d4fe1fe6f894ab87114b67bc97f3cecbb3b72ac360267b18d5ad66afe9a9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,102 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xae4e…fca4backed Yes	5c	22,066$1,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed Yes	4c	7,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes	8c	4,453$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.61	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	6c	3,700$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.56	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	3c	2,345$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.35	126	30.2%38 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,125$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe085…cd9abacked Yes	1c	1,527$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed Yes	6c	1,181$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	4c	1,029$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	137	14.6%20 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	8c	1,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.01	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	823.38$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.71	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	9c	822.48$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.76	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes	22c	413$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6307…0447backed No	78c	413$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	12c	285.83$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes	17c	264$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	14c	201$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	176.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed No	79c	139.79$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.94	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	22c	110.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.62	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes	21c	110.74$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.93	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes	15c	109.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8160…e1a0backed No	80c	108.75$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.75	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	70cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef4…00aebacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	22c	96.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	16c	69.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	27c	39.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	65	40%26 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked No	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+4.1wins	+0.29per pick	57cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Yes	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.9wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event